Multae Sententiae is Latin for "many thoughts". Free thinking leads to Enlightenment. Enlightenment leads to happiness...

Monday, February 12, 2007 CE

Monitoring Peak Oil Number 1

Many people believe that oil production will soon achieve its peak. Some people believe that global oil production has already peaked. Regardless of individual opinions regarding the subject, if oil production starts to decline and it is not replaced by other energy sources at a greater rate than that of its loss, the global economy will enter a period of recession. The length and severity of the recession will depend, again, on the finding of new oil or the replacement of the oil loss by alternative energy sources.

The intention of this series is to provide an easy access to internet surfers to the latest reports on global oil production. I am obtaining the data from Oil Market Report, published by the International Energy Agency. The production figures are expressed in million of barrels per day.

Jan-05 83.95
Feb-05 84.45
Mar-05 84.89
Apr-05 84.89
May-05 85.31
Jun-05 84.87
Jul-05 84.48
Aug-05 84.77
Sep-05 84.07
Oct-05 84.09
Nov-05 84.86
Dec-05 84.65
Jan-06 84.29
Feb-06 84.44
Mar-06 84.72
Apr-06 85.21
May-06 84.79
Jun-06 84.98
Jul-06 86.13
Aug-06 85.52
Sep-06 85.14
Oct-06 85.35
Nov-06 85.39
Dec-06 85.45

According to this data, oil production seems to have peaked in July of 2006. However, as peak oil "experts" say, we would be able to identify the peak oil production some time after it had actually occured. There are many variables, like the finding of new oil fields, the production of oil from sources like tar sands and the arbitrary OPEC production quotas.

I will try to update this information in a monthly basis.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is a world problem.

If you want look at this:

You will be surprised.

See you

4:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


My father-in-law is a chemist. Has lots of patents and junk like that under his belt. He designed a plant that converts grease from local restaurants, cotton husks, soy bean left overs, and rotten corn into 15,000 gallons of diesel grade biofuel per day above and beyond the fuel it uses to run. It fits on one acre. These are becoming very popular in Missouri.

On the other hand... He thought the world was going to end due to a new ice age in 1970. He thought the world was going to end on Jan 1, 2000. He thought that we were all going to be dead from avian flu by now. He now thinks the world will run completely out of oil in 2012. He would have been a follower of Malthius circa 1860.

Malthius and my father-in-law made lots of really bad assumptions. So did the Y2K people, and the ice age people. Why were they all so wrong, because when working on a global scale a 1% error is a huge mistake, and there are too many factors that we do not understand, and even more factors that we do not recognize.

For example, Malthius did not take into account the many technologies that would allow farmers to become much more productive. He did not allow enough for the impact of disease and war. He did not allow for more efficient and effective food distribution systems.


4:44 PM  
Blogger Doctor Marco said...


I understand your optimism, and I wish to share it. So far there is no indication to believe that our lifestyle would not need to change. To what extent? I do not know.

10:36 PM  
Blogger grumpy said...


One day one of these "dramatic" predictions will come true in some manner - it is inevitable.

As far as I'm concerned all of these "sky is falling" predictions are beyond our control.

For example, even if we knew for a fact that humans are the sole cause of global warming we can't reverse it. Even if we could reverse it, people would not do the things needed to reverse it.

So, focus on the things you can control and live life.


10:09 AM  

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