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Wednesday, June 27, 2007 CE

Monitoring Peak Oil Number 3

Oil Production: May 2007: 84.94 millions of barrels per day.
There is a dip in the production of oil. The IEA report states that Nigerian decrease in supply is partially to blame. What is more alarming is that, in the third and fourth quarters of this year, demand is going to surpass supply without any major political event going on (as it happened in 1973 and 1979). July of 2006 continues to be the month with most oil production recorded.


Blogger grumpy said...


Gas prices will increase. So will a lot of other things since they are made from petroleum like... some fabrics, electronics, furniture, most containers, paints, lubricants, cases for machines and tools, some shoes, some plates and cups, plastic ware, trash bags, many adhesives, pavements, roofing materials, water and sewer pipes, lawn chairs, toys, CD's and DVD's, many flooring materials, flower pots, many tubs and showers, garden hoses, window treatments and blinds, auto parts, electrical insulation, and the list goes on and on...


4:53 PM  
Blogger Doctor Marco said...

Agreed. The next decade will be very important in the history of humanity.

1:40 AM  
Blogger NeoAuteur said...

We all should start thinking about switching to alternative energy.

7:29 PM  
Blogger Doctor Marco said...


Your comment is very logical, however, I wish that things could be as simple as your comment. First of all, we should stop using the name "alternative" and we should replace it by "renewable". What is alternative now, should be the norm in the future. Second, I hope that you are not considering within "alternative" energy sources such as ethanol, biodiesel and hydrogen, which are doomed to fail or to make humanity fail in its attempt to replace oil. Third, "switching to alternative" does not address the issue of changing lifestyle meaning driving less and eating locally produced goods.

4:53 PM  
Blogger montysano said...

Doctor Marco,

Just stumbled on your blog via a link from David Strahan's site.

Here's a question that I've posted on similar blogs, but never really gotten an answer: we are incredibly wasteful of energy resources. By what percentage do you suppose that we could instantly reduce our consumption? I've got to think we could cut 20%, maybe even 30% or more, with very little pain. With some sacrifice, we could cut even more. Our problem is partly one of failure of leadership and failure of will.

Also: I right with you in pointing out the scam of "alternative" sources such as ethanol, biodiesel and hydrogen. When it comes to Energy Returned On Energy Invested, dinosaur juice is the king.

1:28 PM  
Blogger Doctor Marco said...


Thanks for stopping by. Your question is a valid question and I think that we have to analyze it carefully. I will try to answer it based on personal experience. I have made a project of consuming less energy. I have divided enegy consumption in direct and indirect. The direct energy consumption is what we spend in heating, electricity, food and transportation. The indirect energy consumption is represented by all the rest of goods we acquire, e.g the car we buy or the computer we buy since there is energy that was placed into their creation and transportation.

The percentage of a budget that the direct energy consumption represents is variable and depends on the activities of each family.

With respect to transportation, driving in the freeway at 55-60 mph reduces the energy consumption by about 25%. With respect to food, assuming that we consume 2000 Kcal per day, we really consume 20000 calories per day because of fertilizers and transportation. So, I have decided to buy food directly from local farmers. I am cutting the transportation cost by doing that. With respect to electricity, I have switched to fluorescent bulbs and I have pretty much suppressed the air conditioner use. By doing that, I have reduced the electric cosnumption by about 60%. With respect to heating, by lowering the thermostat to 62 F in the winter, reduced the gas consumption by about 40% compared to placing the thermostat at 72 F.

The indirect energy consumption is more difficult to quatify, but, the rule should be to reduce the superfluous spending and changing it for savings.

I hope the answer is helpful

6:42 PM  

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